Nuclear Power
Decay heat

It is a steam plant
you cannot switch off.

Nuclear power is the only way of making electricity where stopping the reaction does not stop the heat. Everything distinctive about a reactor — the emergency cooling, the redundant power supplies, the containment, the years a fuel assembly spends underwater — follows from that one fact. This page covers the physics and the engineering, and it is careful with the numbers that are usually quoted wrong.

Read this part
This page is a technical reference, written to be correct rather than reassuring or alarming. Where sources genuinely disagree it says so and shows the disagreement instead of resolving it, and where a number depends on a definition it gives the definition. Figures were checked against primary sources in August 2026 and each carries its source. Nothing here is engineering guidance: design and licensing work uses the applicable standard and the plant's own analysis of record, not a web page.
ON THIS PAGE
What Fission Actually Is The Chain Reaction, and Why It Can Be Controlled Why a Power Reactor Cannot Detonate Reactivity Feedback, and the Sign That Matters Moderators, Coolants, and Why Enrichment Exists Control Rods, Boron, and the Xenon Pit The Reactor You Cannot Switch Off From Heat to Electricity The Reactor Types The Fuel Cycle, Front to Back Radiation and Dose, Stated Correctly The Argument About Low Doses Defense in Depth The Three Accidents Where This Comes From
And the comparison that gets mangled more than any other

What Fission Actually Is

A uranium-235 nucleus absorbs a slow neutron, becomes U-236 in a highly excited state, and within about a millionth of a millionth of a second splits into two lighter nuclei. The fragments fly apart carrying most of the released energy as kinetic energy, which becomes heat when they stop in the fuel. Two or three free neutrons come with them, and those neutrons are what make a reactor possible.

The recoverable energy is about 200 MeV per fission. Burning one carbon atom releases about 4 eV. The ratio is roughly fifty million to one, and it is the entire reason nuclear fuel logistics look nothing like fossil fuel logistics. A plant that burns coal receives unit trains. A plant that fissions uranium receives a truck.

The 200 MeV is not all prompt
Of the roughly 200 MeV, about 13 MeV arrives late, as the radioactive decay of fission products, and some of it leaves with antineutrinos and is never recovered at all. That delayed fraction is not a footnote. It is the same energy budget that reappears after shutdown as decay heat, and it is the reason a reactor cannot simply be turned off. See the decay heat section below, which is the most consequential section on this page.
How much coal is a kilogram of uranium worth? Two correct answers to two different questions. Bars are logarithmic, and labelled as such. A. Complete fission of 1 kg of pure U-235 A physics upper bound. No reactor does this. 1 kg U-235, fully fissioned 7.5M kWh 82 TJ thermal, at 33% efficiency 1 kg coal 2.07 kWh 21.9 MJ thermal, at 34% efficiency Ratio: about 3,600,000 to 1 B. 1 kg of natural uranium, once through a light water reactor What a real fuel cycle delivers. 1 kg natural uranium 44,000 kWh 44 GWh per tonne, World Nuclear Association 1 kg coal 2.07 kWh same basis as above Ratio: about 21,000 to 1 The two ratios differ by a factor of about 170. Both are correct. Quoting the first while describing the second is the most common error in this subject.
The energy density comparison, asked both ways. Panel A is complete fission of pure U-235, a physics upper bound no reactor achieves. Panel B is a kilogram of natural uranium once through a light water reactor, which is what a real fuel cycle delivers. Derived from World Nuclear Association figures for uranium and EIA heat content and heat rate data for coal.
Two answers to "how much coal is a kilogram of uranium worth"
About 3.6 million to one Complete fission of a kilogram of pure U-235 releases about 82 TJ thermal. Correct, and a bound no reactor comes near, because a fuel assembly is a few percent U-235 and is discharged long before that is used up. Physics
About 21,000 to one One tonne of natural uranium through a once-through light water reactor yields roughly 44 million kilowatt-hours, which the World Nuclear Association puts at over 20,000 tonnes of coal. This is the number that describes an actual plant. Engineering

The two differ by a factor of about 170. Both get quoted as "a kilogram of uranium equals X of coal", and the first is routinely used while the second is being described. If you are comparing fuel logistics for a real plant, the engineering number is the one you want.

Delayed neutrons, and reactivity measured in dollars

The Chain Reaction, and Why It Can Be Controlled

A chain reaction is described by k-effective, the ratio of neutrons in one generation to the last. Below one the reaction dies away; at exactly one it sustains itself; above one it grows. A reactor at steady power is critical, k equals one, and it is held there.

If that were the whole story a reactor would be uncontrollable. The prompt neutron lifetime in a thermal reactor is on the order of tens of microseconds; a chain reaction running on prompt neutrons alone would double in power faster than any mechanical system could respond. What makes reactor control physically possible is that a small fraction of the neutrons do not arrive with the fission at all.

  1. 1
    Prompt neutrons — about 99.3 percent
    Emitted at the instant of fission, within roughly 10¹ seconds. These do the work and set the prompt lifetime.
  2. 2
    Delayed neutrons — about 0.65 percent
    Not emitted by fission. They come from a handful of fission products called delayed neutron precursors, chiefly bromine and iodine isotopes, which beta decay into excited daughters that then shed a neutron. The delay is set by the beta half-life of the precursor, and the longest-lived group has a half-life of about 56 seconds.
  3. 3
    The consequence
    A power reactor is deliberately operated so that it is subcritical on prompt neutrons alone and reaches criticality only with the delayed contribution. That last two-thirds of one percent of reactivity arrives on a stopwatch, and the whole of reactor control lives inside it.
Why reactivity is measured in dollars
Because the distance to prompt criticality is the quantity that actually matters, reactivity is expressed in units of the delayed neutron fraction: one dollar equals β, and a cent is a hundredth of that. An insertion of one dollar makes the reactor prompt critical. It is a genuine engineering unit, not a metaphor, and it is why a reactivity figure quoted without the core state is not much use.
β is not one number, and quoting four digits of it is a mistake
β for U-235 About 0.0065 to 0.0068 for thermal fission, depending on the evaluated nuclear data library and the incident neutron energy. Figures of 0.64, 0.65, 0.66 and 0.70 percent are all in circulation and are not simply errors. The isotope
β-effective for the core Weights delayed neutrons by how effective they are at causing further fission. They are born colder than prompt neutrons, around 0.5 MeV against 2 MeV, which changes their survival. It is β-effective, not β, that governs kinetics. The reactor
β-effective at end of cycle Falls through the cycle. Pu-239 has a delayed fraction of about 0.23 percent against U-235 at 0.66, and by end of cycle plutonium supplies roughly a third of the power, so the composite drops toward about 0.005. The moment

This is the reason an end-of-cycle core is measurably twitchier than a fresh one, and it is a real operational effect rather than a curiosity. "About two-thirds of one percent" is an honest statement for U-235. A four-digit β-effective without a named core state and data library is not.

And what it can do instead, which is bad enough

Why a Power Reactor Cannot Detonate

A nuclear weapon requires a supercritical mass of highly enriched fissile material assembled fast enough that the chain reaction runs to completion on prompt neutrons before the assembly blows itself apart. Every one of those conditions is absent from a power reactor, and not by accident.

What a reactor can do
A prompt critical excursion that flashes coolant to steam, producing a steam explosion, and a subsequent hydrogen explosion from the zirconium-water reaction. That is what destroyed Chernobyl Unit 4, where the RBMK design allowed a power rise to roughly a hundred times rated capacity — on a 3,200 MWt reactor, a transient of order 320 GWt lasting a fraction of a second. That is a catastrophic industrial explosion capable of breaching a building and dispersing a core inventory across a continent. It is not, and physically cannot be, a nuclear detonation. Conflating the two is the commonest error in public discussion of reactor accidents, and it is worth being precise about precisely because the real thing is serious enough.
A reactor is stable because of physics, not because of the operator

Reactivity Feedback, and the Sign That Matters

A well-designed reactor pushes back against its own power increases without anyone doing anything. Three feedbacks do most of that work, and their signs are the single most important design characteristic a reactor has.

Feedback Mechanism Sign in a light water reactor
Fuel temperature, or Doppler As fuel heats, resonance absorption peaks in U-238 broaden and capture more neutrons. Acts within milliseconds, in the fuel itself, with no delay for heat transfer. Negative. Always, and it is the fastest protection the core has
Moderator temperature Hotter water is less dense, so it moderates less well and absorbs less. In an undermoderated lattice the net effect is fewer thermal neutrons. Negative in normal operation, though it can go positive at high boron concentration, which is why beginning-of-cycle boron is limited
Void coefficient What happens to reactivity when coolant boils and voids form. In a light water reactor the water is the moderator, so voiding removes moderation. Negative. Boiling shuts a light water reactor down
The RBMK, in numbers
A graphite-moderated, water-cooled reactor is a different machine. The graphite does the moderating, so the water is mainly a neutron absorber, and voiding it adds reactivity. IAEA's INSAG-7 quantifies the Chernobyl Unit 4 void coefficient across its operating range as −0.22β to +5.1β — meaning that under some conditions a loss of coolant could insert more than five times the entire distance to prompt criticality. The sign depended on the burnup state and the operating configuration. Add to that the graphite displacer tips on the control rods, which briefly increased reactivity in the lower core when the rods were driven in from fully withdrawn — a flaw identified in 1983 and not acted on — and the accident of 1986 follows from the design, not only from the operators.
Why the choice of moderator decides everything downstream

Moderators, Coolants, and Why Enrichment Exists

Fission neutrons are born fast, around 2 MeV. U-235's fission cross-section is far larger for slow neutrons than for fast ones, so a thermal reactor has to slow them down — ideally with light nuclei, which take more energy per collision, and without absorbing them on the way.

Those two requirements pull against each other, and the choice of moderator sets the entire rest of the design. Light water is an excellent moderator and a significant absorber, so a light water reactor must make up the loss with enriched fuel. Heavy water and graphite absorb far less, so reactors built around them can run on natural uranium — which is why countries without enrichment capability built CANDUs and gas-cooled reactors.

Moderator Neutron economy Consequence for the design
Light water Excellent slowing down, meaningful absorption Requires 3 to 5 percent enrichment. Compact core. Coolant and moderator are the same fluid, which gives the negative void coefficient for free
Heavy water Good slowing down, very low absorption Runs on natural uranium. Larger core, on-load refuelling, and an expensive initial heavy water inventory
Graphite Slower per collision, very low absorption Runs on natural or slightly enriched fuel. Very large core. If cooled by water, the void coefficient can be positive — see the RBMK above

Coolant is a separate choice, and it need not be the moderator at all. Light and heavy water, carbon dioxide, helium, liquid sodium, molten salt and lead have all been used or seriously proposed. A fast reactor dispenses with moderation entirely and uses a coolant chosen specifically not to slow neutrons down, which is why sodium and lead appear there and water does not.

Three timescales, and the one that caught Chernobyl

Control Rods, Boron, and the Xenon Pit

Reactivity control operates on three quite different timescales, using three different mechanisms, and it is worth keeping them apart.

  1. 1
    Seconds — control rods
    Strong neutron absorbers: boron carbide, silver-indium-cadmium, hafnium. Rods are the fast, mechanical control, and dropping them all is a scram. In a pressurized water reactor the rods fall in under gravity when power to the holding coils is lost, so losing power inserts them rather than stranding them.
  2. 2
    Weeks and months — chemical shim
    A pressurized water reactor dissolves boric acid in the primary coolant and dilutes it slowly across the cycle as fuel burns out. This is what allows the rods to sit nearly fully withdrawn during normal operation, which keeps core power distribution flat.
  3. 3
    The whole cycle — burnable poisons
    Gadolinium or boron built into the fuel itself, designed to burn out at about the rate the fuel does, holding down the excess reactivity of a fresh core without needing it to be held down by rods.
Xenon-135, and the pit
Xe-135 is the strongest neutron absorber in the core and is produced mostly by the decay of iodine-135 rather than directly by fission. At steady power its production and burn-out balance. Reduce power sharply and the burn-out collapses while the iodine keeps decaying, so xenon builds up, peaking hours later. The reactor becomes progressively harder to restart, and then impossible, until the xenon decays — the xenon pit. At Chernobyl on 26 April 1986 the test sequence had driven power to about 30 MWt, deep into xenon poisoning. Recovering power from there meant withdrawing rods far beyond the operating reactivity margin, which is what left the core in a configuration where the positive void coefficient and the rod tips could do what they did.
If you read one section on this page, read this one

The Reactor You Cannot Switch Off

A scram stops the fission chain reaction in about two seconds. It does not stop the heat. The fission products already in the fuel keep decaying, and they do not care what the control rods are doing. Immediately after shutdown a reactor is still producing on the order of 6 to 7 percent of full thermal power, and it will keep producing heat, in declining amounts, for years.

Decay heat after shutdown Fraction of full thermal power. Both axes logarithmic. Way-Wigner correlation, 18-month cycle assumed. ANS/ANSI-5.1 is the standard for design work. 1 s 1 min 1 hr 1 day 1 week 1 month 1 year 10% 1% 0.1% 0.01% 1 hour: 22 MW two months: 1.8 MW Way-Wigner correlation Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1, measured 1,380 MWt The measured values run above the correlation. Use ANS-5.1 for design, not a curve from a page. A fossil plant that loses all power stops. A reactor that loses all power keeps making tens of megawatts of heat inside a sealed vessel. Nearly every safety system on the plant exists because of this curve.
Decay heat after shutdown on logarithmic axes, from one second to one year. The curve is the Way-Wigner correlation assuming an eighteen-month cycle, which is an approximation; ANSI/ANS-5.1 is the standard for design work. The measured points are Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1, a 1,380 MWt reactor, from World Nuclear Association figures. The measured values run above the correlation, which is why nobody sizes a heat sink from a curve on a web page.

Made concrete: one hour after the earthquake scram on 11 March 2011, Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 was producing about 22 MW of decay heat, and Units 2 and 3 about 33 MW each. Thirty-three megawatts is the thermal output of a large industrial boiler, being generated inside a sealed pressure vessel with no way to turn it off. Two months later Unit 1 was still at 1.8 MW. Five years later the three units together were down to about 1 MW, at which point cooling injection could be interrupted for a couple of days.

This one curve explains most of the plant
Emergency core cooling systems, redundant and diverse power supplies, emergency diesel generators, station blackout coping requirements, spent fuel pool cooling, the post-Fukushima FLEX equipment regime, and the multi-year wait before spent fuel can go into a dry cask — all of it exists because of decay heat. A fossil plant that loses all power stops. A reactor that loses all power keeps making tens of megawatts of heat inside a sealed vessel. Fukushima was, in mechanism, a decay heat removal failure: the reactors scrammed correctly and the chain reaction stopped on schedule. What failed was the ability to keep pumping.

One caution on the headline percentage. The often-quoted 6 percent is the fission-product decay contribution during steady operation; the 7 percent is total heat immediately after scram, including residual fissions from delayed neutrons still arriving in the first seconds. Both are right, and the actual value depends on how long the core has been running and at what burnup. It is not a figure to quote to more than two significant digits without stating the operating history.

Why a reactor is less efficient than a gas plant, and by how much really

From Heat to Electricity

Everything after the core is a steam plant. Heat raises steam, steam turns a turbine, the turbine turns a generator, and the exhaust is condensed and pumped back. It is a Rankine cycle, and its efficiency is set by the temperature and pressure of the steam it can make.

Design How the steam is made What that costs you
Pressurized water reactor Primary water is kept liquid at about 155 bar and passes through steam generators, boiling a separate secondary loop. Two loops, so the turbine side stays clean. Steam generators are large, expensive, and historically a leading source of plant problems. Secondary steam is cooler than the primary water
Boiling water reactor Water boils in the core and the steam goes straight to the turbine. One loop. No steam generators, simpler and cheaper, but the turbine hall is part of the radiological envelope because the steam has been through the core
The efficiency comparison everybody quotes, on an honest basis
What is usually said A nuclear plant is about 33 percent efficient and a modern combined-cycle gas plant is about 60 percent. The comparison is everywhere and it is not apples-to-apples. Common
Why it is not comparable The 60 percent is a lower-heating-value figure for a new H-class machine at ISO conditions. US statistics use higher heating value, and 60 percent LHV is about 54 percent HHV. Uranium contains no hydrogen, so a reactor efficiency is neither LHV nor HHV, it is simply thermal. The basis
Same basis, same year EIA tested heat rates for 2024, net, fleet average: nuclear 32.7 percent against combined-cycle gas at 45.2 percent. Coal, for reference, is 34.1 percent — very slightly better than nuclear. Honest

The gap between nuclear and gas is real and large. It is just not 33 against 60. The reason a reactor gives up efficiency is steam temperature: a light water reactor is limited by the pressure at which you are willing to keep water liquid, so it makes saturated steam at roughly 285 degrees Celsius, where a supercritical fossil boiler runs far hotter.

Efficiency also matters far less economically for nuclear than for gas. Uranium is a negligible share of a reactor's generating cost, so a 33 percent efficient reactor is wasting something nearly free. A 45 percent efficient gas plant is wasting its dominant operating cost. What low efficiency does cost the reactor is capital: two thirds of three thousand megawatts thermal has to be rejected to the environment, which means a bigger condenser, more cooling water or a bigger tower, and a bigger low-pressure turbine.

Six families, and what distinguishes each one

The Reactor Types

Type Coolant and moderator Fuel Distinguishing characteristic
PWR Light water, both 3–5% enriched UO The world workhorse, and the basis of naval propulsion. Two loops. Negative void coefficient. VVER is the Russian PWR line and is usually counted with PWRs
BWR Light water, both 3–5% enriched UO Direct cycle, no steam generators. Control rods enter from below, since the top is full of steam separators
PHWR / CANDU Heavy water, both Natural uranium Runs on unenriched fuel and refuels on load through pressure tubes rather than a single pressure vessel. Positive void coefficient, offset by other design features
Magnox / AGR CO cooled, graphite moderated Natural (Magnox) or ~3% enriched (AGR) The British line. Gas coolant allows higher outlet temperature and better thermal efficiency than an LWR
RBMK Light water cooled, graphite moderated ~2% enriched Channel type, no full containment as Western practice understands it, and a void coefficient that could go strongly positive. The Chernobyl design
Fast reactor Sodium or lead, no moderator Higher enrichment or MOX No moderation at all, so it can fission U-238 and transmute actinides. Sodium burns in air and reacts violently with water, which drives the entire plant design

Counts by type are harder to state cleanly than they look. IAEA's Power Reactor Information System is the canonical source but publishes through an application that cannot be read as a static page, and the World Nuclear Association's own pages disagree with themselves on the number of operating RBMKs. Neither PRIS nor WNA breaks out VVERs separately from PWRs. If you need a type census for anything that matters, pull PRIS directly rather than trusting a secondary table, including this one.

Mine to repository, with the enrichment levels that actually matter

The Fuel Cycle, Front to Back

  1. 1
    Mining and milling
    Ore is mined conventionally or recovered by in-situ leaching, then milled to UO, yellowcake.
  2. 2
    Conversion and enrichment
    Yellowcake is converted to uranium hexafluoride, the only uranium compound convenient as a gas, and enriched in centrifuges. Enrichment work is measured in separative work units. Natural uranium is 0.711 percent U-235; light water fuel is 3 to 5 percent.
  3. 3
    Fabrication
    Enriched UF becomes UO powder, pressed and sintered into pellets, stacked in zirconium alloy tubes, and assembled into bundles. A single pellet, about the size of a fingertip, holds roughly the energy of a tonne of coal.
  4. 4
    In core
    Three or four years, typically in three batches so a third of the core is replaced at each outage. Discharge burnup for modern LWR fuel is in the range of 45 to 55 GWd per tonne of uranium, against about 30 a few decades ago — more energy from the same mined uranium.
  5. 5
    Spent fuel pool
    Years under water, for cooling and shielding. The binding constraint before dry storage is thermal and radiological, set by the cask's certificate of compliance and the assembly's burnup, not by a fixed calendar minimum. Five years is a rule of thumb, and high-burnup fuel needs longer.
  6. 6
    Dry storage, and then what
    Passively cooled casks on a concrete pad. Casks are licensed for up to 40 years with renewals of up to 40 more. What comes after that is a policy question, not an engineering one, and it is covered on the companion page.
Enrichment level U-235 content What it is for
Natural uranium 0.711% CANDU and Magnox fuel, and the feed for everything else
Low enriched uranium Under 5% Essentially all commercial light water fuel
HALEU 5 to 20% Most advanced reactor designs. Western supply barely exists
Highly enriched uranium Over 20% Research and naval reactors. A proliferation category, not a performance one
Weapons grade About 90% Not a civil fuel at any point in any commercial cycle
Once through, or reprocess
Once through Fuel is used once and the assembly is stored intact. The United States has done this since a 1977 policy decision against commercial reprocessing, taken on proliferation grounds, which was never reversed in practice. US, Sweden, Canada
Closed, or partly closed Spent fuel is chemically separated, usually by the PUREX process, and the recovered plutonium and uranium are made into mixed oxide fuel. Recovers energy and reduces the volume of high-level waste, at the cost of separating plutonium. France, Russia, Japan

Be careful with world reprocessing capacity figures. The World Nuclear Association table still lists the Sellafield THORP and Magnox plants, both of which have closed, which overstates the total substantially. This is a live error in a widely cited source rather than an old edition.

Four quantities that get called "radiation" and are not interchangeable

Radiation and Dose, Stated Correctly

Quantity What it measures SI unit Older unit
Activity Disintegrations per second in the source. Says nothing about anyone being exposed Becquerel (Bq) Curie (Ci)
Absorbed dose Energy deposited per unit mass of tissue: one joule per kilogram Gray (Gy) Rad
Equivalent dose Absorbed dose weighted for how damaging the radiation type is Sievert (Sv) Rem
Effective dose Equivalent dose weighted again for the sensitivity of each organ irradiated Sievert (Sv) Rem

The weighting factors are why a becquerel figure tells you almost nothing on its own. Photons and beta particles carry a factor of 1; alpha particles carry 20; neutrons vary with energy. An alpha emitter is nearly harmless outside the body, because the particles cannot penetrate the dead outer layer of skin, and is among the most dangerous things there is once inhaled or ingested. External and internal hazard are different problems with different controls.

Exposure Approximate effective dose
US average annual dose, all sources About 620 mrem (6.2 mSv). Roughly half is natural, and radon is the largest single natural contributor
Annual public dose limit from a licensed facility 100 mrem (1 mSv), 10 CFR 20.1301
Annual occupational limit, whole body 5 rem (50 mSv) TEDE, 10 CFR 20.1201
Occupational limit, lens of the eye 15 rem (150 mSv) — note that ICRP recommends far lower and the NRC has not adopted it
Declared pregnant worker, whole gestation 0.5 rem (5 mSv) to the embryo or fetus, 10 CFR 20.1208
Onset of acute radiation syndrome, short-term whole body Around 100 rem (1 Sv)
LD50 without medical care, short-term whole body Roughly 400 to 500 rem (4 to 5 Sv)
The structure of the occupational limit
10 CFR 20.1201(a) sets the annual occupational limit as the more restrictive of 5 rem total effective dose equivalent or a 50 rem sum of deep dose equivalent and committed dose to any individual organ. The lens and skin and extremity limits sit alongside it as independent deterministic limits. It is not a single number, and summarising it as one loses the part that binds in most real exposure situations.
Presented as an open question, because it is one

The Argument About Low Doses

At high doses the relationship between radiation and cancer risk is measured and not in serious dispute. At low doses — below roughly 100 mSv — the excess risk, if any, is smaller than the statistical noise in any feasible study. What to assume in that region is a genuine scientific and regulatory argument, and the honest thing is to lay out the positions rather than pick one.

Three positions, none of them fringe
Linear no-threshold Risk is proportional to dose all the way down, with no threshold. Adopted by the NRC, ICRP and the National Academies BEIR VII committee as a deliberately conservative basis for radiation protection. Regulatory basis
Threshold or non-linear Below some dose the repair mechanisms handle the damage and there is no excess risk. The French Academy of Sciences and Academy of Medicine argued in 2005 that LNT is not supported by the biology at low doses. Contested
Hormesis Very low doses are net beneficial by stimulating repair. A minority position with some experimental support and no acceptance in radiation protection standards. Minority

What matters practically is not who is right but what LNT may be used for. ICRP and UNSCEAR endorse it for optimizing protection and explicitly warn against using it to compute death tolls by multiplying tiny individual doses across very large populations. Nearly every headline casualty projection you will read for Chernobyl or Fukushima does exactly that, and the bodies whose risk model is being used say it should not be done.

Three safety functions, four barriers, and what a number like 10 to the minus five means

Defense in Depth

Reactor safety is organized around three functions that must be maintained: control reactivity, cool the fuel, and contain the radioactivity. Everything else is implementation. The physical protection is layered so that no single failure reaches the public.

Since Three Mile Island the industry has quantified all of this rather than arguing about it qualitatively. Probabilistic risk assessment estimates core damage frequency and large early release frequency per reactor-year. The NRC's guidance treats a core damage frequency around one in ten thousand reactor-years as the reference point for current plants, and the best operating plants are assessed nearer one in a million. These are model outputs with real uncertainty attached, not measurements, and they should be read as the outputs of an analysis of record for a specific plant.

Counted carefully, because three different questions get the same word

The Three Accidents

Read this before the numbers
Casualty figures for these accidents answer three incompatible questions. (a) How many people died of acute radiation injury, individually identified and medically attributed. (b) How many excess cases of a specific cancer have been counted in an identified cohort, and how many of those people died. (c) What a linear risk model projects when applied to an estimated collective dose over a chosen population and time horizon. These are not competing estimates of one quantity, and averaging them produces a number that means nothing. This page keeps them apart.
  1. 1
    Three Mile Island Unit 2, 28 March 1979
    A pilot-operated relief valve stuck open after a turbine trip and scram, and its indicator showed the signal sent to the valve rather than the valve's position. Operators, reading a rising pressurizer level, throttled high pressure injection — the opposite of what the plant needed. About half the core was uncovered and severely damaged. Containment held. The maximum credible offsite dose to any individual was around 100 mrem, which is one sixth of the US average annual dose from all sources and equal to the annual public dose limit. No deaths. The epidemiology since cannot detect an effect, and at that dose it could not have; the negative studies are consistent both with no effect and with an effect too small to see. TMI's demonstrable harm was psychological, economic and institutional — and it produced INPO, resident inspectors, control room human factors work, and a rebuilt operator licensing and training regime.
  2. 2
    Chernobyl Unit 4, 26 April 1986
    A test of whether turbine coastdown could power pumps during a station blackout, run in a xenon-poisoned core with the operating reactivity margin violated, on a design whose void coefficient could reach +5.1β and whose control rods briefly added reactivity on insertion. Power excursion, steam explosion, graphite fire, no containment. (a) 134 confirmed cases of acute radiation syndrome and 28 deaths from it within the first months; some accountings say 30, adding two who died of other causes on the night. (b) Roughly 5,000 to 6,000 thyroid cancers among those exposed as children, of which about 15 had proved fatal by 2005. (c) Projections from collective dose range from about 4,000, through the Chernobyl Forum's wider-boundary ~9,000, to 30,000–60,000 in the TORCH report and higher still in advocacy estimates. The spread is driven by four choices: the population boundary, whether tiny doses are truncated, the risk coefficient used, and the time horizon.
  3. 3
    Fukushima Daiichi, 11 March 2011
    The earthquake scrammed the reactors and cut offsite power; the diesels started. Then the tsunami arrived, overtopped a seawall designed for a much smaller wave, and flooded the emergency diesel generators and switchgear. Station blackout plus loss of the ultimate heat sink, with the decay heat curve running exactly as it always does. Fuel in units 1 to 3 was damaged, zirconium reacted with steam to make hydrogen, and the hydrogen exploded. (a) Zero acute radiation deaths. Japan's labour ministry in 2018 recognised one lung cancer death in a worker as radiation-attributable for compensation purposes. (c) UNSCEAR concluded that no discernible increase in cancer incidence attributable to radiation is expected. Against that, the evacuation itself is associated with well over two thousand disaster-related deaths, concentrated among elderly and hospitalized people. The serious argument that the evacuation caused more harm than the radiation is not a fringe position.
On the Fukushima thyroid screening finding
Ultrasound screening of hundreds of thousands of Fukushima children found a substantial number of thyroid abnormalities. The mainstream interpretation is a screening effect: apply a sensitive test to a large population that has never been screened and you will find subclinical disease that would otherwise never have been detected or caused harm. This is a well-documented phenomenon in cancer screening generally and is not specific to radiation. It is not universally accepted, and it is worth knowing that the disagreement exists.

On comparative risk: several published analyses put deaths per terawatt-hour far lower for nuclear than for coal or oil, and the broad conclusion is robust. The specific decimal is not. The most-circulated figure derives its nuclear numerator largely from Chernobyl projections and from Fukushima evacuation deaths, which means the numerator is dominated by deaths that radiation did not cause. Cite the band, not the decimal.

And what a working engineer should not take from a web page

Where This Comes From

What this page is not
Design and licensing work uses ANSI/ANS standards, the plant's analysis of record, and the applicable regulation — not a summary, and not this one. Decay heat in particular is given here with a textbook correlation for illustration; nobody sizes a heat sink that way. Where this page has had to choose between being simple and being right, it has tried to be right and to say why the simple version is wrong.